Trusted Tips and Resources

Trusted Tips & Resources

Trusted Regina Financial Advisor John Barabe explains Inflation.

John Barabe has an unwavering commitment to quality and service which has enabled him to build and retain a successful practice in Regina. He and his team believe that planning with honesty and integrity are cornerstones to improving clients' quality of life. He applies his knowledge to help clients make the right choices when considering all the product and service options that exist in today's marketplace.  In this article he gives us a little perspective and insight while ansewring the question does inflation matter.

Does INFLATION matter?


Let’s simplify inflation with a silly story: The U.S. government just printed and deposited 1 billion dollars into everyone’s chequing account. The first thing that happened is a 5-mile-long line up at the Ferrari dealer. But, will the Ferrari dealers sell their expensive cars at yesterdays price? Not a chance, because currency is now nearly worthless. 

 Above sports cars, there are exotic sports cars—and then there’s the LaFerrari! Base model starting at $1,420,112 U.S.

The purpose of my above silly story was to emphasize that printing does cause inflation. Further to that point, 78% of all money the U.S. has ever created was printed since January 2021. Please note that the M2 money supply chart was recently discontinued. I wonder why? What is the value of anything that can be produced for nothing?


Okay, enough theory. Commodities broke out to the upside (by Michael Oliver’s criteria) in October and is currently up ~28% since that breakout. He is predicting a ~50% climb in less than a year and we are on pace for his prediction to play out. 

As commodities are the basis for everything we consume, does it not make sense that costs (actual inflation) will also be increasing by about this amount? 

We have known for a long time that Statistics Canada and BLS (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) understate inflation. Check out shadowstats.com (see below chart) and the Chapwood index for carefully calculated inflation (both of these independent sources calculate inflation amounts and their results roughly confirm each other, and dispel the official calculation).

Understating inflation is done to save the government billions a year. Think about union negotiations when the official inflation is only 1%. This creates unfortunate negative affects, the payout of social programs and pension plans to name a few. Over time we end up with way less income than “actual” inflation would dictate we should have. 

What if inflation, real inflation, were to be 50% from October 2020 to October 2021 (matching the increase in commodities as discussed above)? If this were the case, I would guess that Stats Canada and the BLS would have to increase their official numbers higher, much higher. After all, there is a limit to how far you can pull the wool over people’s eyes.

If “official” inflation were to become 12% (still way below the above “potential” actual) a 5-year GIC (guaranteed investment certificate) becomes ~16% and mortgage rates would jump to ~20% (there is a profit spread for banks). A $1,905 a month payment ($500,000 house with a high ratio $450,000 mortgage at 2%) would become $7,267 a month

The likely outcome for many homes would be that the bank now owns them as this payment is much too high. The bank would then attempt to sell it to recapture the debt lent out.

House prices are dictated by the affordability of the monthly payment. For example, $7,267 is not affordable. Assuming $1,900 is still affordable the $500,000 house would have to fall in price (using the same high ratio 90% mortgage - now $120,000) to $135,000. That is a drop in value of -73% or a $365,000 loss. 

Our money forms the banks reserve (bank deposits are unsecured loans to the bank/credit union/trust company). It does not matter if we deposit to savings, chequing or locked in for a time period. From our deposits, the banks loan money out at a huge leverage. I was shocked when I looked up the reserve that Canadian banks set aside. It seemed as though it was a secret (finding specifics was nearly impossible). The reserve is apparently 0.62% on average for Canadian banks. Less than one percent. Let’s make it 1% to simplify how leveraged the banks are. 

For every $100 in deposits, they loan out $100/0.01 = $10,000. All the banks need to lose is $100 of their $10,000 block of debt to be bankrupt. Considering the above losses with only a 12% inflation rate, I believe that is a real risk. 

In addition to the above, the actual amount that CDIC (Canada Deposit Insurance Corp.) could cover in a system wide banking collapse (which would likely be the result of 12% inflation) is $6737 per $100,000. It is just not designed for a system wide collapse. I do believe the money needed will be printed, but is that not what caused the problem in the first place? I believe more printing will not solve the problem, but will make the problem worse.

Also think about the effect of your money sitting in the bank. If inflation is way higher than the understated official number, deposits are not being compensated. After tax and inflation, what will you gain? Or will you suffer a guaranteed loss? 

Why is it that no one is telling you about this but me? Why is this not front-page news? Should GIC’s still be rated low risk?

So, does inflation matter? I will let you decide. There is more to this story, much more. As this plays out, we will be here every step of the way. Our objective is to guide each of you to the best of our ability and do everything we can to protect and grow your wealth. This is evident with the strategies and investments that are recommended (and more than likely implemented) already.


If you have any questions, or just want to catch up, please feel free to touch base by email, phone or with an in-office appointment. 

John Barabe and his team carefully consider your needs, goals and dreams in order to implement a well-constructed financial strategy, so that you can have peace of mind about your hard-earned money and financial future. They can simplify your life by addressing your complete financial well-being, which encompasses everything from:

John Barabe is a Trusted Financial Advisor



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Trusted Regina Real Estate Lawyer shares some insight on the potential future of the Canadian Housing Market.

MacKay & McLean provides the professional services of a large Regina law firm, with the intimate attention of a small firm. The legal process can be daunting and overwhelming, but it doesn't have to be. MacKay & McLean is with you every step of the way.

MacKay &  McLean are TRUSTED REGINA LAWYERS

When looking to buy, sell, or refinance a property, you need to hire somebody who is not a stranger to addressing the real estate needs of individuals and families. 


Canadian Home Prices Could Drop as Much as 5% Due to Coronavirus


Trusted Regina Real Estate Lawyer Robert MacKay shares some insight on the potential future of the Canadian Housing market.

Canadian home prices could fall a “relatively modest” five per cent by July as some owners are forced to sell in the face of the economic hardship brought on by COVID-19, Capital Economics said Monday.

While sales activity and price gains were firm in the first half of March, real estate boards from across the country are reporting a near halt in activity as government shutdowns and physical distancing have people staying home.


As April unfolded, it became innately clear that COVID-19 had already impacted the local housing market, with Toronto home prices declining for the first time in nearly two years.

But the pandemic isn’t just going to have an impact on a local level but on a national level as well, with some experts already predicting that Canadian home prices could fall in the months to come.

Capital Economics said Canada’s house price inflation accelerated to a nearly two-year high in March, but given the disruption already caused by the coronavirus outbreak, prices are set to decrease in the coming months.

Capital Economics senior Canada economist Stephen Brown said April will see “an even steeper fall” in sales activity to a “small fraction of their normal levels.”

“New listings also fell sharply in March, which meant the sales-to-new listing ratio continued to point to strong house price inflation ahead,” said Brown, however, he said 

“given the huge rise in unemployment and the cashflow problems that restrictions on tourism have caused investors in the short-term rental market, it seems likely that there will be some forced sellers in the coming months. Those sellers will inevitably have to accept lower bids from the few people willing to buy in the current environment.”  said Brown.


Last week, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported a 14 per cent drop in sales volume from February to March. New listings were down 12.5 per cent from February, while average prices were flat month-over-month and up 12.5 per cent year-over-year.


That dynamic has Capital Economics “penciling in a relatively modest fall in house prices of five per cent in the coming few months.”


Source: Greg Bonnell - BNN Bloomberg - April 20 2020 - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/home-prices-could-fall-5-amid-pandemic-capital-economics-1.1424090 
Source: Ainsley Smith - Toronto Storeys - April 20 2020 - https://torontostoreys.com/canada-home-prices-coronavirus-decline/


For more questions and help with any legal property issues consult with our Trusted Regina Real Estate Lawyer Robert MacKay


More consumer tips by Robert MacKay: 



Robert MacKay's team provides professional, personalized service and with their assistance, you can rest assured that your real estate transactions will be handled with the utmost consideration and care.

They  provide a full range of legal services including:

  • Real Estate & Mortgages
  • Wills & Estates
  • Family Law & Divorce
  • Commercial & Corporate Law
  • Litigation & Personal Injury

ROBERT Mackay is your TRUSTED REGINA REAL ESTATE LAWYER!



Trusted Regina Realty Lawyer shares a tip for home buyers on how to avoid real estate mistakes

MacKay & McLean provides the professional services of a large Regina law firm, with the intimate attention of a small firm. The legal process can be daunting and overwhelming, but it doesn't have to be. MacKay & McLean is with you every step of the way.

MacKay &  McLean are TRUSTED REGINA LAWYERS

When looking to buy, sell, or refinance a property, you need to hire somebody who is not a stranger to addressing the real estate needs of individuals and families. 

How to avoid realty mistakes

If you are selling or Investing in a home can be overwhelming and stressful. It is, perhaps, one of the most important decisions you will ever need to make.  It is fraught with potential pitfalls and you must do everything you can to avoid making costly mistakes. the following is list of the biggest mistakes we all make when buying and selling our homes.


Failing to Showcase Your Home and Making Small Cosmetic Changes

When you are selling your house, you have to really look at it objectively and think about it from the viewpoint of the house hunter. Make minor enhancements to the house and maybe hire a professional stager to come and arrange your furniture. 

Staging is about decorating your house for the buyers' taste, not yours.

 A great place to start is with the front of the home and the main entryway. Home staging is designed to increase the potential selling price and reduce the amount of time the house stays on the market.


Setting Too High of a Sale Price

As a seller, it's really important to do your research. To come up with your sale price, look up what comparable homes in your neighborhood have sold for. Figure out what the going price is and try to put yours right in the middle of that, unless you have something extra-special to offer. It's always better to price a home that way than to start too high and have to reduce. Once you reduce, it always looks like something is wrong with the home.


 
Overlooking the Extra and Hidden Costs
  
Buying a home is not just about the money that you spend upfront; it's  about all the rest of the money you have to spend beyond that. Find out what the property taxes are, what your water bill might be and what a standard electric bill is in that home, especially if you have electric heat instead of gas heat. You also need to factor in furnishings you may need to purchase before you can move in.



Buying a Home Without a Professional Inspection

There are a lot of things a home inspection can reveal about a property that are not visible to the naked eye. Be sure to hire someone who comes with a good referral basis, who's been in the business a while and knows what to look for. Look up  Home Inspectors and get a list of qualified home inspectors in your area. 


Be sure to hire a home inspector to thoroughly check out a house you are interested in purchasing.

Once you find an inspector, insist that they compile a written report, complete with photos. Photographs are important because there are areas a home inspector will go that you might not look at.

Falling in Love With the First Property You See

Many homebuyers, particularly first-time homebuyers, fall into the trap of falling in love with the very first house that they see. You need to at least look at three more houses in the area to get an idea of what the comparables are in that price range. You want your real estate agent to show you homes comparable to what you saw. At the end of the day, re-evaluate.

Skipping the Loan Pre-Approval Step

When you are pre-approved, the bank is saying, "we will give you a mortgage of up to this amount, so now all you have to do is find your home." Some sellers only allow real estate agents to show their house if someone has a pre-approved letter. That indicates that the shopper really is serious about buying a home.

Not Hiring an Agent

There's a lot more to selling a house than just putting a sign on the front lawn. If you don't have an agent, you will not get on the multiple-listing service (MLS). That means that other agents are not going to know that your property is for sale. Another thing to consider is if you are willing to show the house each time someone wants to come by and look at it. If you do plan to sell your house on your own, be sure to have a lawyer present at the closing. It's really important to have someone on your side who understands all the complexities.


Not Thinking About Resale

When you are decorating and renovating your home, you need to think about what is going to appeal to a broad section of buyers when it comes time to sell it. Buying houses and being in the real estate market is like chess: You always want to look two or three steps ahead in the game.

Not Researching the Neighborhood

It's absolutely critical that you research the neighborhood before you buy. Check out the area, amenities and the school system to be sure that your address corresponds with the correct school district. Also attend a community meeting, if possible. You're not just buying a house, you're buying a piece of that real estate and the land around it.

Buying a House for Its Decor

Remember that you are buying the house, not the things inside it, so make sure you see beyond the decorations and look at the bones of the home. Focus on the floor plan and the square footage. You also might want to measure the dimensions and graph out how that's going to work with your belongings.

Not Providing Easy Access for Showings

Make your house easily accessible to potential buyers. If there's nowhere to park or it's difficult to get into, buyers may just skip it and look at someone else's property.

When you go about buying your home the right way, you can make it less difficult and ensure success. For more questions and help with any legal property issues consult with our Trusted Regina Real Estate Lawyer Robert MacKay

Here is a list of more consumer tips by Robert MacKay 


Robert MacKay's team provides professional, personalized service and with their assistance, you can rest assured that your real estate transactions will be handled with the utmost consideration and care.

They  provide a full range of legal services including:

  • Real Estate & Mortgages
  • Wills & Estates
  • Family Law & Divorce
  • Commercial & Corporate Law
  • Litigation & Personal Injury

ROBERT Mackay is your TRUSTED REGINA REAL ESTATE LAWYER!


Trusted Regina mortgage broker explains the First Time Home Buyer Incentive program

Skott Enns – Skott’s goal isn’t to simply help you get a mortgage with the best mortgage rates, it is to help you figure out a plan to pay off your mortgage as quickly as possible!  Has been voted Regina’s best mortgage broker for 2013, 2014, and 2015 & 2016 by Prairie Dog Magazine and named to the Summit 20 group, which means that he is in the Top 20% of all TMG Mortgage Brokers in Canada for the last two years.

If you are looking for honest, unbiased advice from a mortgage broker in Regina they would love to talk with you!

TMG The Mortgage Group Skott Enns is a Trusted Regina Mortgage Broker



Skott sat down with CBC and explained the First Time Home Buyer Incentive program.




In a recent interview with CBC News our Trusted Regina Mortgage Broker  Skott Enns sat down and explained the new features of the First Time Home Buyer Incentive Program.  In addition Skott goes on to examine some potential pro's and cons with this program.  He begins by stating that:

Starting September 3rd for any homes where possession is starting in November if a potential first time home buyer has the minimum 5% down payment, CMHC will provide them with an additional loan of 5% for an existing home or an additional 10% for a new build for the down payment.  

He also states that outside of being a first time home buyer the maximum household qualifying income that they can use for mortgage approval is $120,000. per year.  So if your household makes more than this you will not qualify for this program.  Additionally the largest purchase price for approval is four times the amount of your qualifying income.  

Something buyers need to note is that when you do choose to sell the home the monies that CMHC provides will need to be paid back to them though the loan is interest free.


Benefits of the Program

When asked as a mortgage broker what are some of the benefits you see to a program like this Skott detailed his perspective as follows:


  • It allows a first time home buyer to keep their cost as low as possible when considering principle and interest payments
  • The program will reduce your CMHC premium

Negatives of the program

Skott goes on to outline some potential negatives of the Program:

  • People forget - If you sell your house in 10 years you may forget that you need to re pay the loan to CMHC.
  • People have general concerns about being in partnership with CMHC who is part of the Federal Government on the biggest investment which is their home.
He adds :

To be honest this is the first bit of good news that we have had in terms of qualifying for a mortgage.  
The news coming out about mortgages and from CMHC has been about how difficult the newest changes make it for not just first time home buyers but anybody to qualify for a mortgage.  It seems that every change has been making it more and more difficult. But this bit of good new will help keep payment down for a segment of the market.

To find out more watch the entire interview here


If you are looking for honest, unbiased advice from a mortgage broker in Regina Skott and his partner Ryan  would love to talk with you!

Skott Phone 306-201-6500  Ryan Phone 306-570-3379 

No Time to set up an appointment! No Problem! You can also click here to apply now  with Ryan or apply now with Skott and get the ball rolling.

TMG The Mortgage Group Skott Enns & Ryan Boughen are Trusted Regina Mortgage Brokers


Trusted Regina Home builder explains how building your dream home might be more affordable than you think!

Emerald Park Homes takes great pride in their workmanship, and have some of the finest tradesmen in the industry working together with them to create quality homes. Their focus is: "Our Quality Shows” and if you drive around the communities of White City / Emerald Park located just 8 minutes east of Regina on the #1 Highway, you will see signs on the lots available for your custom designed Emerald Park Home.

Put 20 years of experience in home building to work for you! Emerald Park Homes are TRUSTED REGINA & REGION HOME BUILDERS and they are experts in their industry.

Trusted Regina Home Builders Emerald Park Homes- Regina's first Holmes approved home builder

Trusted Regina Home Builder tip on Building Homes to a Higher Standard from their

Emerald Park Homes Builders Blog.


Whether you’re planning on building your dream home or buying a used home, the process to determine whether or not you are financially ready is the same either way. If you are financially ready to buy a home, then you are ready to build a home.

So, how do you determine if you are financially ready?

1. You should start by comparing how much you are currently spending on expenses and any debt payments to the amount of money you have saved up.

In other words, you need to get an idea of what your net worth is in order to know where you stand financially. You can do this by making a list! (We love our lists around here, that’s for sure!) Write down everything that you own that is considered an asset (your savings, investments, vehicles, home, etc.). Now write down all of your debts (student loans, credit card debt, your mortgage, etc.) and subtract them from your assets, and you have your net worth. Don’t worry about your income in this equation, this is just to give you an idea of your financial health.


2. Think about how much can you afford to spend on housing each month without risking your financial health.

Is what you’re spending now on housing about where you need to stay to keep your budget intact, or can you afford a bit more? The nice thing about building your own home is that you can make sure that you’re paying for what you actually want to have in your new home and not extras that you will never use. When you purchase a used home, that isn’t always the case. For example, if granite counter tops are not important to you and you would rather not spend the money, but the previous owners installed new granite counter tops… Guess what? The cost of that home included those expensive granite counter tops.

3. Look into your credit score.

What is the status of your credit score currently like? Your credit score is a number that signals your financial health and is an important factor that lenders use when they are analyzing your credit for a mortgage. According to Equifax, a credit score of 660 to 900 is generally what you need for your credit score to be considered to be good, very good, or excellent.


4. Consider how much money you will need for the upfront costs of building a home.

Generally, you will need a down payment of at least 10%. This is where a lot of people think that building a home differs from buying a home. People often think that building a home requires interim or progress payments – which, many people are not in the financial position to comply with. However, that is not always the case. 

We’re happy to inform you that, with Emerald Park Homes, in most cases, will finance your build to possession day (On approved credit).

Giving you time to sell your existing property without having to worry about paying progress payments or obtaining costly interim financing.