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Trusted Regina Financial Management Consultant John Barabe Discusses Boom and Bust

John Barabe  is a Trusted Regina Financial Management Consultant and he has an unwavering commitment to quality and service which has enabled him to build and retain a successful practice in Regina. He and his team of Regina financial professionals and support staff  believe that planning with honesty and integrity are cornerstones to improving their clients' quality of life. He applies his knowledge to help clients make the right choices when considering all the product and service options that exist in today's marketplace. In his latest Trusted Regina financial expert article he shares a Boom and Bust Report! 


Boom Bust Report

August 2021


I am sending this out as material information to keep everyone informed. This is not a solicitation for any investment. This is only meant to provide perspective and update you as best as I can from the extensive ongoing research that I do.

 

Market REALITY

 

We live in interesting times. In history there have been bubbles; however, they used to be contained to a region or asset. The Dutch Tulip Bubble (1630’s), South Sea Bubble (1720), 1929 crash, and more recently the 2000 Dot Com Bubble and the 2008 U.S. Housing bubble to name a few. But none of these engulfed the entire world. Fast forward to today. By nearly any metric, the stock markets are now at highs never seen before. 


How is this possible? 


Companies are shut down, closing stores and offices, or running way below capacity due to an inability to bring in workers and customers staying home.









Bond prices are also in the stratosphere. Since when do negative interest rates make any sense? This is the epitome of a bubble. Negative interest rates are only possible when investors overpay so much for a bond, that they are guaranteed to lose money. Interest rates around the world are either near, at, or below zero. Thus, loans are super cheap as interest rates are the lowest in human history (because bonds are the highest priced in history). 

 

To complete the “everything” bubble, we must include real estate. Real estate prices are a factor of the affordability of the monthly payment. Even though real estate prices are extremely high, payments are still affordable due to the lowest interest rates in history. Recent increases in housing are now eclipsing payment affordability despite the record low rates. If rates were “normal”, housing prices would have to be much lower.






The bubble is not limited to stocks, bonds, and real estate. There are other signs of a bubble. Intangible Non-Fungible Tokens (NFT-digital record of ownership), empty canvasses, non-existent music and most recently a woman’s intangible “love” have been priced in the many thousands or even hundreds of thousands of dollars! Really? 

 

Wondering what an NFT is? 


In order to really understand an NFT on an intangible asset, I will equate it to a tangible asset like a house. With an NFT you own a document that says you own the “house”. But anyone else can own the house as well (digital copy is identical to the original) and the masses can and have downloaded your house exactly as you did. The only difference is you paid a fortune for the ownership document. See the following example.

 

A digital artist named Mike Winkelmann sold his NFT (of the below image ) for US $69 million!! 

What did the buyer get? Anyone can still view “Beeple’s” original and even make exact copies of it at no cost. $69 million just does not buy what it used to. In my mind the buyer bought nothing.




There is evidence of a major bubble, now well known as the everything bubble (do your own search of the “everything bubble”). We know logic would have us buy low and sell high. When we buy high, we reduce our potential for return and increase our downside exposure (increase risk). The masses buy high and sell low despite this logic. Success secret: do the opposite. 

 

Regardless of the evidence that stocks, bonds, and real estate are in a bubble, there are still great opportunities for your life savings. Being aware of the dangers allows you to protect yourself and even profit from the opportunities they provide. 

 

I hope you are enjoying the remaining summer as we all know too well what comes next. If you have any questions, or just want to catch up, please feel free to touch base by email, phone or with an in-office appointment. 

 

Sincerely,

John Barabe, Madison Schenher and team.



 


Sources: 

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/062315/five-largest-asset-bubbles-history.asp

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/23/the-stock-market-is-at-or-near-the-most-expensive-levels-ever-by-most-measures-when-will-it-matter.html

https://currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/307846512_Corporate_Reporting_of_Non-GAAP_Earnings_and_SEC_Compliance

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/070915/how-negative-interest-rates-work.asp

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/negative-interest-rates-absolutely-everything-you-need-to-know/

https://onlineonly.christies.com/s/beeple-first-5000-days/beeple-b-1981-1/112924

5 and 6 https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-nothing-has-never-been-more-valuable-than-it-is-now/

Earlier this month, the Italian artist Salvatore Garau sold Nothing for a mere €15,000 ($22,000) – making him an underachiever extraordinaire at a time when Nothing is sacred, and people are clamouring to pay millions for it.

“You do not see it but it exists; it is made of air and spirit,” Mr. Garau said of his “immaterial sculpture,” titled Io Sono. “It is a work that asks you to activate the power of imagination.” And yet, if he had been financially savvy, he would have issued an NFT, a non-fungible token, for the work. Back in March, a digital artist named Mike Winkelmann, better known as Beeple, sold a digital collage as an NFT – not some physical artifact, but just a spritz of bits attesting to a kind of ownership-adjacent non-ownership. Anyone can still view Beeple’s original and can make exact copies at no cost. The buyer spent US$69-million.

 

https://www.makeuseof.com/what-do-you-actually-own-if-you-buy-an-nft/

 

https://www.theguardian.com/music/shortcuts/2013/jan/28/church-sold-out-cd-silence

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_silent_musical_compositions

https://nypost.com/2021/07/29/polish-influencer-just-sold-her-love-as-an-nft-for-250k/

http://www.olivertalamayan.com/success-secret-do-the-opposite-of-what-everyone-is-doing/

10 https://edition.cnn.com/style/article/beeple-first-nft-artwork-at-auction-sale-result/index.html

11 https://www.millionacres.com/real-estate-financing/articles/is-home-affordability-out-the-door-for-2021/

11 https://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/local-niagara-falls/news/2021/05/07/housing-affordability-plummets-in-niagara-in-2021.html

11 https://wowa.ca/calculators/affordability   According to BMO, home buyers must have a minimum 5% down payment for homes worth less than $500K. For homes between $500K and $1M, home buyers must have at least 5% for the first $500K and 10% for the remaining amount. For homes worth more than $1M, home buyers must have a minimum 20% down payment.

12 Ninepoint presentation July 21, 2021 slides 10 and 11. 

13 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qfgTf09f5I&t=1825s  well done research that details how the world used gold/silver for most of history. The reserve currency misinformation chart that is used wide spread. Less to do with reserve currency and more to do with fiat. 

 

 

The opinions expressed within this article/communication are those of the Financial Advisor and are not necessarily those of Keybase Financial Group Inc. Any data provided is for illustration purposes only. Clients and prospective clients should always read a product prospectus and fully understand all of the risks associated with the product before purchasing. Any information relating to the discussion of taxation issues is considered to be only general in nature. Clients should seek a qualified tax professional to discuss their specific tax requirements.

 

Third party publications are not prepared by Keybase Financial Group Inc. The opinions, estimates and projections contained in the publication are those of the author as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. Keybase Financial Group Inc. makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof, takes no responsibility for any errors or omissions which may be contained therein and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on the report or its contents. The provision of this publication is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for or an offer to buy any securities.

 

Keybase Financial Group Inc. is a member of the MFDA and is a member of the MFDA IPC.

 

Trusted Regina Lawyers at MacKay & McLean Share 5 Tips If You Are Considering A Separation

MacKay & McLean provides the professional services of a large Regina law firm, with the intimate attention of a small firm. The legal process can be daunting and overwhelming, but it doesn't have to be. MacKay & McLean is with you every step of the way.

MacKay &  McLean are TRUSTED REGINA LAWYERS. In their latest tip they provide their top legal tips for individuals going through or considering separation


Top 5 Things To Consider when Going Through A Separation 





So, you’ve separated. Now what?

The short answer? It depends.

As with most things, separation can take one of many paths, and there is no universal approach. Generally, we see two paths: an easy way and a hard way. The easy way involves agreement and, often, compromise. The hard way usually involves lawyers, courts, and a lot of time, money, and emotional hardship.

If you’re certain this is the end of the relationship, I suggest you read the rest of this article. If you think you are just taking some time apart, it may be pre-emptive to consider the following steps. Please keep in mind that these suggestions are aimed at those who have truly reached the end of their relationship. Even If you were never legally married, the law may still consider you a spouse. This will vary by jurisdiction, legislation, and context, but in Saskatchewan, the rule of thumb is that one obtains property and support rights and or obligations after two years of living together.

If you were legally married or a spouse, here are the top 5 things you need to consider after separation.

1. IF YOU HAVE KIDS, PLAN YOUR PARENTING ARRANGEMENT

After separation, you must consider your parenting arrangement. Your child, or children, are of primary importance. How you handle things now will have a lasting impact on your relationship with them, their schooling, their friendships, and their state of mind. Accordingly, a lot of thought should go into this.

The Children’s Law Act, 2020 sets out that parents are presumed to have joint decision-making authority and responsibilities. No longer do courts in Saskatchewan look at simply custody and access. The primary focus is on what is in the best interest of the child or children.

The court will focus on the age of the child and their stage of development, the child’s relationship with each parent, each parent’s willingness to support the development and maintenance of the child’s relationship with the other parent, and so on.

When agreeing to a parenting arrangement, you should discuss things such as the weekly schedule, holidays (including long weekends), birthdays, summer vacation, and family travel. Make sure to keep in mind the child’s schedule, as well as what is realistic and possible with each parent’s work schedule.

Ultimately, there is not a single “correct” arrangement, and the best plan is always going to be the one that works for your family.

2. DECIDE WHO IS LIVING WHERE

After separation, it is important to consider who is living where. Some have suggested that staying in the family home is paramount, but this advice is questionable. The family home is a sharable asset, no matter whose name is on the title or who continues to reside in the residence after separation.

If there are children the primary consideration is often how to minimize any disruption in their lives. To this end, former couples may enter into “nesting agreements” where they share the home or continue to live with one another. A “legal” separation starts when the intention to live separate and apart forms.

Often, one party will stay in the home and the other will find someplace to rent. Deciding who will live where and how it will be paid for is the focus at this stage.

3. TAKE STOCK – INVENTORY ALL ASSETS AND LIABILITIES

Once things have slightly settled, make a list of what you have and what you owe, along with the corresponding values of each.

Gather information that confirms or verifies when cohabitation commenced, a copy of your marriage certificate, and any documents that support your list of assets and liabilities or debts.

You usually don’t want to go so far as to list every dish and piece of silverware, but you should definitely list major assets, e.g. home, cabin, cars, jewelry, art, etc., and estimate the fair market value of each. Similarly, list the debt each person has.

Upon separation, the rule of thumb is that you divide the gains during the marriage. Therefore, you should parse out the property that you had, or the value of it, prior to the marriage.

If you had a common-law relationship, the two-year anniversary is considered the “date of marriage”.

Decide who keeps what.

4. GATHER TAX RETURNS

One of the primary things lawyers will look for next is evidence as to what each party makes. This will require documentation of sorts, e.g. income tax returns, notices of assessment, and pay stubs.

The income information can be used to determine whether one party should pay support. If you know the other party’s income, you can calculate support on your own using sites such as https://www.mysupportcalculator.ca/. Sites such as this one can help determine your budget and how much you need or have to live on.

5. PUT IT INTO WRITING

Once the dust begins to settle and the vision for the future becomes a little clearer, you should encapsulate everything in a separation agreement. It’s better to avoid serious issues in the future by building a good agreement today. Having a separation agreement in place makes the path going forward a little easier, including the likely divorce, and it helps avoid disputes.
Separation agreements generally revolve around 5 things:

  • Recitals, which spell out the details of the relationship and the parties—date of cohabitation and/or marriage and date of separation;
  • Custody, access and parenting arrangements;
    Child support;
  • Division of property—who keeps what property and who takes what debt; and,
  • Spousal support—how much will be paid and for how long.

The cost of preparing an agreement like this typically depends on how much the lawyer must negotiate, as well as how complicated the affairs are of the parties involved. For example, if the parties have lots of business entanglements, then the cost of an agreement will be higher. And, if the negotiation is already mostly done, agreements may be drawn up for a lot less.

Click on this link to read our full article and to watch a video that provides more helpful information 

At the end of the day, we know that this list of things to consider after separation isn’t comprehensive – it would be impossible to make a list that covers every scenario! This is why we offer a free consultation. You can call 306.569.1301 to speak with one of our experienced lawyers .We will try to get back to you as soon as possible, usually within 24 hours.


Robert Mackay and the team at Mackay & McLean offer a variety of legal services and are able to represent you in a variety of situations that require counsel. In addition, they offer a free initial consultation. They are Trusted Regina Lawyers, based in Regina Saskatchewan,  and they specialize in real estatecriminalpersonal injurycommercial & family law.


See more legal tips from Mackay & McLean here 


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