John Barabe is a Trusted Regina Financial Management Consultant and he has an unwavering commitment to quality and service which has enabled him to build and retain a successful practice in Regina. He and his team of Regina financial professionals and support staff believe that planning with honesty and integrity are cornerstones to improving their clients' quality of life. He applies his knowledge to help clients make the right choices when considering all the product and service options that exist in today's marketplace. In his latest Trusted Regina financial expert article he shares a Boom and Bust Report!
Boom Bust Report
I am sending this out as material information to keep everyone informed. This is not a solicitation for any investment. This is only meant to provide perspective and update you as best as I can from the extensive ongoing research that I do.
We live in interesting times. In history there have been bubbles; however, they used to be contained to a region or asset. The Dutch Tulip Bubble (1630’s), South Sea Bubble (1720), 1929 crash, and more recently the 2000 Dot Com Bubble and the 2008 U.S. Housing bubble to name a few. But none of these engulfed the entire world. Fast forward to today. By nearly any metric, the stock markets are now at highs never seen before.
How is this possible?
Companies are shut down, closing stores and offices, or running way below capacity due to an inability to bring in workers and customers staying home.
Bond prices are also in the stratosphere. Since when do negative interest rates make any sense? This is the epitome of a bubble. Negative interest rates are only possible when investors overpay so much for a bond, that they are guaranteed to lose money. Interest rates around the world are either near, at, or below zero. Thus, loans are super cheap as interest rates are the lowest in human history (because bonds are the highest priced in history).
To complete the “everything” bubble, we must include real estate. Real estate prices are a factor of the affordability of the monthly payment. Even though real estate prices are extremely high, payments are still affordable due to the lowest interest rates in history. Recent increases in housing are now eclipsing payment affordability despite the record low rates. If rates were “normal”, housing prices would have to be much lower.
The bubble is not limited to stocks, bonds, and real estate. There are other signs of a bubble. Intangible Non-Fungible Tokens (NFT-digital record of ownership), empty canvasses, non-existent music and most recently a woman’s intangible “love” have been priced in the many thousands or even hundreds of thousands of dollars! Really?
Wondering what an NFT is?
In order to really understand an NFT on an intangible asset, I will equate it to a tangible asset like a house. With an NFT you own a document that says you own the “house”. But anyone else can own the house as well (digital copy is identical to the original) and the masses can and have downloaded your house exactly as you did. The only difference is you paid a fortune for the ownership document. See the following example.
A digital artist named Mike Winkelmann sold his NFT (of the below image ) for US $69 million!!
What did the buyer get? Anyone can still view “Beeple’s” original and even make exact copies of it at no cost. $69 million just does not buy what it used to. In my mind the buyer bought nothing.
There is evidence of a major bubble, now well known as the everything bubble (do your own search of the “everything bubble”). We know logic would have us buy low and sell high. When we buy high, we reduce our potential for return and increase our downside exposure (increase risk). The masses buy high and sell low despite this logic. Success secret: do the opposite.
Regardless of the evidence that stocks, bonds, and real estate are in a bubble, there are still great opportunities for your life savings. Being aware of the dangers allows you to protect yourself and even profit from the opportunities they provide.
I hope you are enjoying the remaining summer as we all know too well what comes next. If you have any questions, or just want to catch up, please feel free to touch base by email, phone or with an in-office appointment.
John Barabe, Madison Schenher and team.
5 and 6 https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-nothing-has-never-been-more-valuable-than-it-is-now/
Earlier this month, the Italian artist Salvatore Garau sold Nothing for a mere €15,000 ($22,000) – making him an underachiever extraordinaire at a time when Nothing is sacred, and people are clamouring to pay millions for it.
“You do not see it but it exists; it is made of air and spirit,” Mr. Garau said of his “immaterial sculpture,” titled Io Sono. “It is a work that asks you to activate the power of imagination.” And yet, if he had been financially savvy, he would have issued an NFT, a non-fungible token, for the work. Back in March, a digital artist named Mike Winkelmann, better known as Beeple, sold a digital collage as an NFT – not some physical artifact, but just a spritz of bits attesting to a kind of ownership-adjacent non-ownership. Anyone can still view Beeple’s original and can make exact copies at no cost. The buyer spent US$69-million.
11 https://wowa.ca/calculators/affordability According to BMO, home buyers must have a minimum 5% down payment for homes worth less than $500K. For homes between $500K and $1M, home buyers must have at least 5% for the first $500K and 10% for the remaining amount. For homes worth more than $1M, home buyers must have a minimum 20% down payment.
12 Ninepoint presentation July 21, 2021 slides 10 and 11.
13 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qfgTf09f5I&t=1825s well done research that details how the world used gold/silver for most of history. The reserve currency misinformation chart that is used wide spread. Less to do with reserve currency and more to do with fiat.
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